Al Wehda Club 4–0 Abha: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Wehda Club

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Abha

9/22/2023

Pro League · Round 7King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Wehda Club49%

×Draw23%

Abha28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Wehda ClubExpected goals in this matchAbha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.34

Al Wehda Club

1.82

Abha

1.34

Al Wehda Club creates 36% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 77 away

1.43

creates per match

1.05

1.63

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Al Wehda Club

1.43

Abha

1.05

allows per match

Al Wehda Club

1.63

Abha

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wehda Club+0.00on par

Abha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda Club ↓

Abha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Wehda Club or draw

72%

Al Wehda Club or Abha

77%

Draw or Abha

51%

Winning margin

Al Wehda Club wins by 2+

27%

Abha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Wehda Club 1+ goals

84%

Al Wehda Club 2+ goals

54%

Al Wehda Club 3+ goals

27%

Abha 1+ goals

74%

Abha 2+ goals

39%

Abha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda Club (draw refunded)

63%

Abha (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda Club at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.63 · 94 matches

Abha away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda Club attack 1.43 + Abha defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Abha attack 1.05 + Al Wehda Club defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Wehda Club scores more

49%

level

23%

Abha scores more

28%

Al Wehda Club at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Wehda Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff