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Al Watan vs Assabah SC — Premier League 2019

Al Watan
Al Watan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Assabah SC
Assabah SC
12/30/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Watan32%
×Draw33%
Assabah SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Watan
0.86
Assabah SC
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Watan
0.94
Assabah SC
0.78

allows per match

Al Watan
1.06
Assabah SC
0.78

finishing

Al Watan+0.00on par
Assabah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Watan ↓

Assabah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al Watan or draw
65%
Al Watan or Assabah SC
67%
Draw or Assabah SC
68%

Winning margin

Al Watan wins by 2+
11%
Assabah SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Watan 1+ goals
58%
Al Watan 2+ goals
21%
Al Watan 3+ goals
6%
Assabah SC 1+ goals
60%
Assabah SC 2+ goals
23%
Assabah SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Watan (draw refunded)
48%
Assabah SC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Watan at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Assabah SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Watan attack 0.94 + Assabah SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Assabah SC attack 0.78 + Al Watan defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Watan scores more
32%
level
33%
Assabah SC scores more
35%

Assabah SC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Assabah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Watan vs Assabah SC

Al Watan and Assabah SC drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 30, 2025.