Al Watan 1–0 Asaria: Result & Stats

Al Watan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Asaria

12/31/2024

Premier League · West - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Watan47%

×Draw27%

Asaria26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al WatanExpected goals in this matchAsaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.96

Al Watan

1.40

Asaria

0.96

Al Watan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

0.94

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Al Watan

0.94

Asaria

0.85

allows per match

Al Watan

1.06

Asaria

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Watan+0.00on par

Asaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Watan ↓

Asaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Watan or draw

74%

Al Watan or Asaria

73%

Draw or Asaria

53%

Winning margin

Al Watan wins by 2+

23%

Asaria wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Watan 1+ goals

75%

Al Watan 2+ goals

41%

Al Watan 3+ goals

17%

Asaria 1+ goals

62%

Asaria 2+ goals

25%

Asaria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Watan (draw refunded)

65%

Asaria (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Watan at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Asaria away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Watan attack 0.94 + Asaria defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.40

Asaria attack 0.85 + Al Watan defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Watan scores more

47%

level

27%

Asaria scores more

26%

Al Watan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Watan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff