Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Wasl FC vs Persepolis FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
3/13/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Zabeel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Wasl FC27%
×Draw28%
Persepolis FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wasl FC
0.99
Persepolis FC
1.35

Persepolis FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC
0.73
Persepolis FC
0.89

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC
1.82
Persepolis FC
1.25

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw
55%
Al-Wasl FC or Persepolis FC
72%
Draw or Persepolis FC
73%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
10%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
63%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
26%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
8%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
74%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
39%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
38%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 0.73 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more
27%
level
28%
Persepolis FC scores more
45%

Persepolis FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Wasl FC 0–1 Persepolis FC

Persepolis FC beat Al-Wasl FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on March 13, 2018.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadion in Dubai.