Al-Wasl FC 7–1 Emirates Club: Result & Stats

Al-Wasl FC

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Emirates Club

2/17/2024

Presidents Cup · Round of 16Zabeel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Wasl FC75%

×Draw16%

Emirates Club9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Wasl FCExpected goals in this matchEmirates Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

0.72

Al-Wasl FC

2.43

Emirates Club

0.72

Al-Wasl FC creates 238% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.36

creates per match

1.00

0.45

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC

2.36

Emirates Club

1.00

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC

0.45

Emirates Club

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Emirates Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Emirates Club →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw

91%

Al-Wasl FC or Emirates Club

84%

Draw or Emirates Club

25%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+

52%

Emirates Club wins by 2+

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals

91%

Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals

69%

Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals

43%

Emirates Club 1+ goals

51%

Emirates Club 2+ goals

16%

Emirates Club 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)

89%

Emirates Club (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Emirates Club away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 2.36 + Emirates Club defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.43

Emirates Club attack 1.00 + Al-Wasl FC defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more

75%

level

16%

Emirates Club scores more

Al-Wasl FC at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Al-Wasl FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff