Al-Wasl FC 4–0 Al Nasr: Result & Stats

Al-Wasl FC

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Nasr

A. Saleh 82'

H. Seferovic 63'

F. Lima 53', 45+3' (pen)

5/17/2024

Presidents Cup · FinalHazza Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Wasl FC51%

×Draw22%

Al Nasr27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Wasl FCExpected goals in this matchAl Nasr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.35

Al-Wasl FC

1.95

Al Nasr

1.35

Al-Wasl FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.20

0.50

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC

2.50

Al Nasr

2.20

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC

0.50

Al Nasr

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Al Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Al Nasr →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw

73%

Al-Wasl FC or Al Nasr

78%

Draw or Al Nasr

49%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+

29%

Al Nasr wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals

86%

Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals

58%

Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals

31%

Al Nasr 1+ goals

74%

Al Nasr 2+ goals

39%

Al Nasr 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)

66%

Al Nasr (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Al Nasr away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 2.50 + Al Nasr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Al Nasr attack 2.20 + Al-Wasl FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more

51%

level

22%

Al Nasr scores more

27%

Al-Wasl FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al-Wasl FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

H. SeferovicGoal Disallowed - offside

20'

N. Gimenez

21'

A. Saleh

42'

R. Omer

44'

S. Bouftini

45+3'

F. LimaPenalty

49'

A. Salmeen← Rodrigo

50'

M. Ndiaye

52'

Rodrigo

53'

F. Lima

63'

H. Seferovic

67'

I. Medeiros← K. Agudelo

67'

R. Omer← A. Jshak

67'

M. Gabbiadini← E. Ampofo

68'

S. Sidibe

73'

A. Saleh← Y. Al Mheiri

79'

A. Abdulaziz← A. Abdulaziz

79'

M. Barghash← A. Al Balooshi

79'

H. Seferovic← Caio Canedo

79'

M. Janeer← M. Janeer

82'

A. Saleh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff