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Al Wahda vs Tishreen — Premier League 2019

Al Wahda
Al Wahda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tishreen
Tishreen
5/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Al-Basel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Al Wahda35%
×Draw30%
Tishreen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wahda
1.07
Tishreen
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 80 away

creates per match

Al Wahda
1.29
Tishreen
1.18

allows per match

Al Wahda
0.98
Tishreen
0.86

finishing

Al Wahda+0.00on par
Tishreen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda ↓

Tishreen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Wahda or draw
65%
Al Wahda or Tishreen
70%
Draw or Tishreen
65%

Winning margin

Al Wahda wins by 2+
14%
Tishreen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Wahda 1+ goals
66%
Al Wahda 2+ goals
29%
Al Wahda 3+ goals
9%
Tishreen 1+ goals
66%
Tishreen 2+ goals
29%
Tishreen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda (draw refunded)
50%
Tishreen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 83 matches

Tishreen away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda attack 1.29 + Tishreen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Tishreen attack 1.18 + Al Wahda defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Wahda scores more
35%
level
30%
Tishreen scores more
35%

Al Wahda at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Wahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Wahda vs Tishreen

Al Wahda beat Tishreen 2-0 in Premier League on May 26, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Basel Stadium in Homs‎.