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Al Wahda vs Foutoua — Premier League 2019

Al Wahda
Al Wahda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Foutoua
Foutoua
6/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Al-Fayhaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Al Wahda42%
×Draw29%
Foutoua29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wahda
1.23
Foutoua
0.98

Al Wahda creates 26% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Wahda
1.29
Foutoua
0.98

allows per match

Al Wahda
0.98
Foutoua
1.17

finishing

Al Wahda+0.00on par
Foutoua+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda ↓

Foutoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Wahda or draw
71%
Al Wahda or Foutoua
71%
Draw or Foutoua
58%

Winning margin

Al Wahda wins by 2+
18%
Foutoua wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Wahda 1+ goals
71%
Al Wahda 2+ goals
35%
Al Wahda 3+ goals
13%
Foutoua 1+ goals
62%
Foutoua 2+ goals
26%
Foutoua 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda (draw refunded)
59%
Foutoua (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 83 matches

Foutoua away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda attack 1.29 + Foutoua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Foutoua attack 0.98 + Al Wahda defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Wahda scores more
42%
level
29%
Foutoua scores more
29%

Al Wahda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Wahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Wahda 1 – 0 Foutoua

Al Wahda beat Foutoua 1-0 in Premier League on June 20, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Fayhaa Stadium in Dimashq (Damascus).