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Al Wahda vs Efrin — Premier League 2019

Al Wahda
Al Wahda
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Efrin
Efrin
3/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Al Jalaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Wahda62%
×Draw22%
Efrin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wahda
1.92
Efrin
0.88

Al Wahda creates 118% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Wahda
1.29
Efrin
0.77

allows per match

Al Wahda
0.98
Efrin
2.54

finishing

Al Wahda+0.00on par
Efrin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda ↓

Efrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Wahda or draw
83%
Al Wahda or Efrin
78%
Draw or Efrin
38%

Winning margin

Al Wahda wins by 2+
37%
Efrin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Wahda 1+ goals
85%
Al Wahda 2+ goals
57%
Al Wahda 3+ goals
30%
Efrin 1+ goals
59%
Efrin 2+ goals
22%
Efrin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda (draw refunded)
79%
Efrin (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 83 matches

Efrin away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda attack 1.29 + Efrin defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.92

Efrin attack 0.77 + Al Wahda defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Wahda scores more
62%
level
22%
Efrin scores more
17%

Al Wahda at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Wahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Wahda 6–1 Efrin

Al Wahda beat Efrin 6-1 in Premier League on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Al Jalaa Stadium in Damascus.