Al Wahda 2–1 Al Ansar: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Wahda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Ansar

3/5/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Saïda International Stadium (Saïda (Saida))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Wahda32%

×Draw36%

Al Ansar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al WahdaExpected goals in this matchAl Ansar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

Al Wahda

0.79

Al Ansar

0.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.75

creates per match

0.83

0.75

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Al Wahda

0.75

Al Ansar

0.83

allows per match

Al Wahda

0.75

Al Ansar

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wahda+0.00on par

Al Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda ↓

Al Ansar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–116%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Al Wahda or draw

68%

Al Wahda or Al Ansar

64%

Draw or Al Ansar

68%

Winning margin

Al Wahda wins by 2+

10%

Al Ansar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Wahda 1+ goals

55%

Al Wahda 2+ goals

19%

Al Wahda 3+ goals

5%

Al Ansar 1+ goals

55%

Al Ansar 2+ goals

19%

Al Ansar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda (draw refunded)

50%

Al Ansar (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Al Ansar away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda attack 0.75 + Al Ansar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Al Ansar attack 0.83 + Al Wahda defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Al Wahda scores more

32%

level

36%

Al Ansar scores more

32%

Al Wahda at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Al Wahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff