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Al Wahda vs Al Ahed — AFC Cup 2018

Al Wahda
Al Wahda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
5/21/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Wahda32%
×Draw35%
Al Ahed32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wahda
0.81
Al Ahed
0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Wahda
0.75
Al Ahed
0.88

allows per match

Al Wahda
0.75
Al Ahed
0.88

finishing

Al Wahda+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Wahda or draw
68%
Al Wahda or Al Ahed
65%
Draw or Al Ahed
68%

Winning margin

Al Wahda wins by 2+
11%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Wahda 1+ goals
56%
Al Wahda 2+ goals
19%
Al Wahda 3+ goals
5%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
56%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
19%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda (draw refunded)
50%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda attack 0.75 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Al Ahed attack 0.88 + Al Wahda defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Al Wahda scores more
32%
level
35%
Al Ahed scores more
32%

Al Wahda at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Al Wahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Wahda 0–0 Al Ahed

Al Wahda and Al Ahed drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.