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Al Wahda FC vs Al Zawra'a — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Wahda FC
Al Wahda FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
4/7/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Play-offsAl Nahyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Wahda FC49%
×Draw22%
Al Zawra'a28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wahda FC
1.90
Al Zawra'a
1.40

Al Wahda FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Wahda FC
1.60
Al Zawra'a
1.60

allows per match

Al Wahda FC
1.20
Al Zawra'a
2.20

finishing

Al Wahda FC+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda FC ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al Wahda FC or draw
72%
Al Wahda FC or Al Zawra'a
78%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
51%

Winning margin

Al Wahda FC wins by 2+
28%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Wahda FC 1+ goals
85%
Al Wahda FC 2+ goals
56%
Al Wahda FC 3+ goals
29%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
75%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
41%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)
63%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda FC attack 1.60 + Al Zawra'a defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Al Zawra'a attack 1.60 + Al Wahda FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Wahda FC scores more
49%
level
22%
Al Zawra'a scores more
28%

Al Wahda FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al Wahda FC 2–1 Al Zawra'a

Al Wahda FC beat Al Zawra'a 2-1 in AFC Champions League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Al Nahyan Stadium in Abu Dhabi.