Al Wahda FC 2–1 Al-Ittihad FC: Result & Stats

Al Wahda FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Ittihad FC

L. Pimenta Peres Lopes 90'

Caio Canedo 62'

S. Bergwijn 21'

9/15/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 1Al Nahyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Wahda FC45%

×Draw24%

Al-Ittihad FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Wahda FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Ittihad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.39

Al Wahda FC

1.70

Al-Ittihad FC

1.39

Al Wahda FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.60

creates per match

1.57

1.20

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Al Wahda FC

1.60

Al-Ittihad FC

1.57

allows per match

Al Wahda FC

1.20

Al-Ittihad FC

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda FC ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Wahda FC or draw

68%

Al Wahda FC or Al-Ittihad FC

76%

Draw or Al-Ittihad FC

55%

Winning margin

Al Wahda FC wins by 2+

24%

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Wahda FC 1+ goals

82%

Al Wahda FC 2+ goals

51%

Al Wahda FC 3+ goals

24%

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

75%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

40%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)

59%

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda FC attack 1.60 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.57 + Al Wahda FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Wahda FC scores more

45%

level

24%

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

32%

Al Wahda FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Tadic

Al Wahda FC · M

8.0

Match Events

21'

S. Bergwijn↳ Fabinho

36'

Muhannad ShanqeetiCard upgrade

37'

Muhannad Shanqeeti

46'

J. Simic← S. Al Shehri

50'

Rúben Amaral

58'

Mohammad Ghorbani

62'

Caio Canedo↳ O. M. Khribin

65'

Saad Al-Mousa

67'

Fabinho

70'

A. Al Nashri← F. Al Ghamdi

77'

A. Hamad← F. Kruspzky

77'

G. Rivera← Caio Canedo

78'

B. Diarra← M. Ghorbani

84'

Y. Al Jaber← S. Al Mousa

84'

A. Al Oboud← S. Bergwijn

85'

M. Doumbia← H. Aouar

90+10'

Lucas Pimenta

90'

L. Pimenta Peres Lopes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Ittihad

Overview

53%Possession47%

26Total Shots2

13Corners1

16Fouls8

Shots

26Total Shots2

6On Target2

13Off Target0

7Blocked0

16Inside Box0

10Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

412Total Passes386

359Accurate Passes325

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1