Al Urooba 0–1 Fursan Hispania: Result & Stats

Al Urooba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fursan Hispania

5/7/2023

Division 1 · Round 32Al Orooba Club / MS2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Urooba64%

×Draw20%

Fursan Hispania16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al UroobaExpected goals in this matchFursan Hispania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.97

Al Urooba

2.13

Fursan Hispania

0.97

Al Urooba creates 120% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 16 away

1.81

creates per match

0.81

1.14

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Al Urooba

1.81

Fursan Hispania

0.81

allows per match

Al Urooba

1.14

Fursan Hispania

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Urooba+0.00on par

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Urooba ↓

Fursan Hispania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Urooba or draw

84%

Al Urooba or Fursan Hispania

80%

Draw or Fursan Hispania

36%

Winning margin

Al Urooba wins by 2+

40%

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Urooba 1+ goals

88%

Al Urooba 2+ goals

63%

Al Urooba 3+ goals

35%

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

62%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

25%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Urooba (draw refunded)

80%

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Urooba at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Urooba attack 1.81 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Urooba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Urooba scores more

64%

level

20%

Fursan Hispania scores more

16%

Al Urooba at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff