Al Urooba 2–1 Dubai City: Result & Stats

Al Urooba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dubai City

11/5/2023

Division 1 · Round 8Al Orooba Club / MS2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Urooba60%

×Draw21%

Dubai City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al UroobaExpected goals in this matchDubai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.06

Al Urooba

2.04

Dubai City

1.06

Al Urooba creates 92% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 60 away

1.81

creates per match

0.98

1.14

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Al Urooba

1.81

Dubai City

0.98

allows per match

Al Urooba

1.14

Dubai City

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Urooba+0.00on par

Dubai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Urooba ↓

Dubai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Urooba or draw

81%

Al Urooba or Dubai City

79%

Draw or Dubai City

40%

Winning margin

Al Urooba wins by 2+

36%

Dubai City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Urooba 1+ goals

87%

Al Urooba 2+ goals

60%

Al Urooba 3+ goals

33%

Dubai City 1+ goals

65%

Dubai City 2+ goals

29%

Dubai City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Urooba (draw refunded)

76%

Dubai City (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Urooba at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Dubai City away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Urooba attack 1.81 + Dubai City defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Al Urooba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Urooba scores more

60%

level

21%

Dubai City scores more

19%

Al Urooba at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff