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Al Urooba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah — Division 1 2018

Al Urooba
Al Urooba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
10/21/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Al Orooba Club / MS2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Urooba32%
×Draw25%
Dibba Al-Fujairah43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Urooba
1.29
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.54

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 19% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 61 away

creates per match

Al Urooba
1.81
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.95

allows per match

Al Urooba
1.14
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.77

finishing

Al Urooba+0.00on par
Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Urooba ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Urooba or draw
57%
Al Urooba or Dibba Al-Fujairah
75%
Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah
68%

Winning margin

Al Urooba wins by 2+
14%
Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Urooba 1+ goals
72%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
37%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
14%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
79%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
45%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Urooba (draw refunded)
43%
Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Urooba at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Urooba attack 1.81 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.95 + Al Urooba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Urooba scores more
32%
level
25%
Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
43%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Urooba 0–0 Dibba Al-Fujairah

Al Urooba and Dibba Al-Fujairah drew 0-0 in Division 1 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Al Orooba Club / MS2 in Mirbih / Murbah.