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Al Ula vs Al Baten — Division 1 2018

Al Ula
Al Ula
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Baten
Al Baten
10/3/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Ula59%
×Draw22%
Al Baten19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ula
1.94
Al Baten
1.02

Al Ula creates 90% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 70 away

creates per match

Al Ula
2.31
Al Baten
1.11

allows per match

Al Ula
0.94
Al Baten
1.57

finishing

Al Ula+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ula ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Ula or draw
81%
Al Ula or Al Baten
78%
Draw or Al Baten
41%

Winning margin

Al Ula wins by 2+
35%
Al Baten wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Ula 1+ goals
86%
Al Ula 2+ goals
58%
Al Ula 3+ goals
30%
Al Baten 1+ goals
64%
Al Baten 2+ goals
27%
Al Baten 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Ula (draw refunded)
75%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ula at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Al Baten away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ula attack 2.31 + Al Baten defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al Baten attack 1.11 + Al Ula defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al Ula scores more
59%
level
22%
Al Baten scores more
19%

Al Ula at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Ula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ula vs Al Baten

Al Ula and Al Baten drew 1-1 in Division 1 on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.