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Al-Thuqbah vs Al-Hazm — Division 1 2018

Al-Thuqbah
Al-Thuqbah
FT
1 – 2
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
11/29/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 7Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al-Thuqbah35%
×Draw25%
Al-Hazm41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Thuqbah
1.38
Al-Hazm
1.52

Al-Hazm creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 53 away

creates per match

Al-Thuqbah
1.66
Al-Hazm
1.68

allows per match

Al-Thuqbah
1.37
Al-Hazm
1.09

finishing

Al-Thuqbah+0.00on par
Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Thuqbah ↓

Al-Hazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Thuqbah or draw
59%
Al-Thuqbah or Al-Hazm
75%
Draw or Al-Hazm
65%

Winning margin

Al-Thuqbah wins by 2+
16%
Al-Hazm wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al-Thuqbah 1+ goals
75%
Al-Thuqbah 2+ goals
40%
Al-Thuqbah 3+ goals
16%
Al-Hazm 1+ goals
78%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
45%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al-Thuqbah (draw refunded)
46%
Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Thuqbah at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.09 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Thuqbah attack 1.66 + Al-Hazm defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al-Hazm attack 1.68 + Al-Thuqbah defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al-Thuqbah scores more
35%
level
25%
Al-Hazm scores more
41%

Al-Hazm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Thuqbah vs Al-Hazm

Al-Hazm beat Al-Thuqbah 2-1 in Division 1 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.