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Al Thaid vs Masfut — Division 1 2018

Al Thaid
Al Thaid
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 3
Masfut
Masfut
10/5/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 3Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Al Thaid41%
×Draw25%
Masfut34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Thaid
1.50
Masfut
1.36

Al Thaid creates 10% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

creates per match

Al Thaid
1.33
Masfut
1.24

allows per match

Al Thaid
1.48
Masfut
1.68

finishing

Al Thaid+0.00on par
Masfut+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Thaid ↓

Masfut →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Thaid or draw
66%
Al Thaid or Masfut
75%
Draw or Masfut
59%

Winning margin

Al Thaid wins by 2+
20%
Masfut wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Thaid 1+ goals
78%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
44%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
19%
Masfut 1+ goals
74%
Masfut 2+ goals
39%
Masfut 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Thaid (draw refunded)
54%
Masfut (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Thaid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Masfut away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Thaid attack 1.33 + Masfut defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Masfut attack 1.24 + Al Thaid defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Thaid scores more
41%
level
25%
Masfut scores more
34%

Al Thaid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Thaid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Thaid vs Masfut

Al Thaid and Masfut drew 3-3 in Division 1 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Dhaid Stadium in Al-Dhaid (Dhaid).