Al Thaid 1–2 Dubai United: Result & Stats

Al Thaid

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dubai United

11/2/2024

Division 1 · Round 5Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Thaid32%

×Draw23%

Dubai United44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ThaidExpected goals in this matchDubai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.71

Al Thaid

1.43

Dubai United

1.71

Dubai United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 43 away

1.33

creates per match

1.95

1.48

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Al Thaid

1.33

Dubai United

1.95

allows per match

Al Thaid

1.48

Dubai United

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Thaid+0.00on par

Dubai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Thaid ↓

Dubai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Thaid or draw

56%

Al Thaid or Dubai United

77%

Draw or Dubai United

68%

Winning margin

Al Thaid wins by 2+

15%

Dubai United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Al Thaid 1+ goals

76%

Al Thaid 2+ goals

42%

Al Thaid 3+ goals

17%

Dubai United 1+ goals

82%

Dubai United 2+ goals

51%

Dubai United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Al Thaid (draw refunded)

42%

Dubai United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Thaid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Dubai United away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Thaid attack 1.33 + Dubai United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Dubai United attack 1.95 + Al Thaid defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Thaid scores more

32%

level

23%

Dubai United scores more

44%

Dubai United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dubai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff