Al Thaid 0–1 Al Urooba: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Thaid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Urooba

10/28/2023

Division 1 · Round 7Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Al Thaid29%

×Draw26%

Al Urooba45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ThaidExpected goals in this matchAl Urooba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.51

Al Thaid

1.16

Al Urooba

1.51

Al Urooba creates 30% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 72 away

1.33

creates per match

1.54

1.48

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Al Thaid

1.33

Al Urooba

1.54

allows per match

Al Thaid

1.48

Al Urooba

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Thaid+0.00on par

Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Thaid ↓

Al Urooba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Thaid or draw

55%

Al Thaid or Al Urooba

74%

Draw or Al Urooba

71%

Winning margin

Al Thaid wins by 2+

12%

Al Urooba wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Al Thaid 1+ goals

69%

Al Thaid 2+ goals

32%

Al Thaid 3+ goals

11%

Al Urooba 1+ goals

78%

Al Urooba 2+ goals

44%

Al Urooba 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Al Thaid (draw refunded)

39%

Al Urooba (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Thaid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Thaid attack 1.33 + Al Urooba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Urooba attack 1.54 + Al Thaid defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Thaid scores more

29%

level

26%

Al Urooba scores more

45%

Al Urooba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff