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Al Taraji vs Al Qaisoma — Division 1 2018

Al Taraji
Al Taraji
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al Qaisoma
Al Qaisoma
5/21/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 33Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Taraji35%
×Draw26%
Al Qaisoma39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taraji
1.27
Al Qaisoma
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al Taraji
1.00
Al Qaisoma
1.08

allows per match

Al Taraji
1.65
Al Qaisoma
1.54

finishing

Al Taraji+0.00on par
Al Qaisoma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taraji ↓

Al Qaisoma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Taraji or draw
61%
Al Taraji or Al Qaisoma
74%
Draw or Al Qaisoma
65%

Winning margin

Al Taraji wins by 2+
15%
Al Qaisoma wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Taraji 1+ goals
72%
Al Taraji 2+ goals
36%
Al Taraji 3+ goals
14%
Al Qaisoma 1+ goals
74%
Al Qaisoma 2+ goals
39%
Al Qaisoma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Taraji (draw refunded)
47%
Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taraji at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Al Qaisoma away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taraji attack 1.00 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Qaisoma attack 1.08 + Al Taraji defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Taraji scores more
35%
level
26%
Al Qaisoma scores more
39%

Al Qaisoma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Qaisoma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taraji 1–3 Al Qaisoma

Al Qaisoma beat Al Taraji 3-1 in Division 1 on May 21, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz Sports City Stadium in Al Qatif.