Al Taraji 3–2 Al Najma: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Taraji

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Al Najma

9/1/2023

Division 1 · Round 4Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Taraji29%

×Draw24%

Al Najma47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TarajiExpected goals in this matchAl Najma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.65

Al Taraji

1.25

Al Najma

1.65

Al Najma creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

1.65

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Al Taraji

1.00

Al Najma

1.65

allows per match

Al Taraji

1.65

Al Najma

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taraji+0.00on par

Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taraji ↓

Al Najma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Taraji or draw

53%

Al Taraji or Al Najma

76%

Draw or Al Najma

71%

Winning margin

Al Taraji wins by 2+

12%

Al Najma wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Al Taraji 1+ goals

71%

Al Taraji 2+ goals

36%

Al Taraji 3+ goals

13%

Al Najma 1+ goals

81%

Al Najma 2+ goals

49%

Al Najma 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Al Taraji (draw refunded)

38%

Al Najma (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taraji at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taraji attack 1.00 + Al Najma defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Najma attack 1.65 + Al Taraji defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Taraji scores more

29%

level

24%

Al Najma scores more

47%

Al Najma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff