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Al Taraji vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Taraji
Al Taraji
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
9/21/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Taraji31%
×Draw27%
Al Bukayriyah41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taraji
1.13
Al Bukayriyah
1.34

Al Bukayriyah creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Taraji
1.00
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Taraji
1.65
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Taraji+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taraji ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Taraji or draw
59%
Al Taraji or Al Bukayriyah
73%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
69%

Winning margin

Al Taraji wins by 2+
13%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Taraji 1+ goals
68%
Al Taraji 2+ goals
31%
Al Taraji 3+ goals
11%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
74%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
39%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Taraji (draw refunded)
43%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taraji at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taraji attack 1.00 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Taraji defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Taraji scores more
31%
level
27%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
41%

Al Bukayriyah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taraji 0–0 Al Bukayriyah

Al Taraji and Al Bukayriyah drew 0-0 in Division 1 on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.