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Al Taqdom vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Al Taqdom
Al Taqdom
FT
5 – 2
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
9/10/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 36Al-Najma Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Taqdom49%
×Draw23%
Hetten FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taqdom
1.76
Hetten FC
1.26

Al Taqdom creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Taqdom
1.21
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Al Taqdom
1.63
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Al Taqdom+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taqdom ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Taqdom or draw
73%
Al Taqdom or Hetten FC
77%
Draw or Hetten FC
51%

Winning margin

Al Taqdom wins by 2+
27%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Taqdom 1+ goals
83%
Al Taqdom 2+ goals
52%
Al Taqdom 3+ goals
26%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
72%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
36%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Taqdom (draw refunded)
64%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taqdom at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taqdom attack 1.21 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.76

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Al Taqdom defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Taqdom scores more
49%
level
23%
Hetten FC scores more
27%

Al Taqdom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Taqdom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taqdom 5–2 Hetten FC

Al Taqdom beat Hetten FC 5-2 in Division 1 on September 10, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Najma Club Stadium in Unaizah.