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Al Taqdom vs Al-Thuqbah — Division 1 2018

Al Taqdom
Al Taqdom
FT
1 – 3
Al-Thuqbah
Al-Thuqbah
8/7/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 29Al-Najma Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Taqdom35%
×Draw26%
Al-Thuqbah39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taqdom
1.31
Al-Thuqbah
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Al Taqdom
1.21
Al-Thuqbah
1.13

allows per match

Al Taqdom
1.63
Al-Thuqbah
1.42

finishing

Al Taqdom+0.00on par
Al-Thuqbah+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taqdom ↓

Al-Thuqbah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Taqdom or draw
61%
Al Taqdom or Al-Thuqbah
74%
Draw or Al-Thuqbah
65%

Winning margin

Al Taqdom wins by 2+
16%
Al-Thuqbah wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Taqdom 1+ goals
73%
Al Taqdom 2+ goals
38%
Al Taqdom 3+ goals
14%
Al-Thuqbah 1+ goals
75%
Al-Thuqbah 2+ goals
40%
Al-Thuqbah 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Taqdom (draw refunded)
48%
Al-Thuqbah (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taqdom at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Al-Thuqbah away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taqdom attack 1.21 + Al-Thuqbah defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al-Thuqbah attack 1.13 + Al Taqdom defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Taqdom scores more
35%
level
26%
Al-Thuqbah scores more
39%

Al-Thuqbah at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Thuqbah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taqdom 1–3 Al-Thuqbah

Al-Thuqbah beat Al Taqdom 3-1 in Division 1 on August 7, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Najma Club Stadium in Unaizah.