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Al Taqdom vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Division 1 2018

Al Taqdom
Al Taqdom
FT
1 – 3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1/21/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 21Al-Najma Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Taqdom28%
×Draw26%
Al-Qadisiyah FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taqdom
1.06
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.44

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Taqdom
1.21
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.24

allows per match

Al Taqdom
1.63
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.92

finishing

Al Taqdom+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taqdom ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Taqdom or draw
54%
Al Taqdom or Al-Qadisiyah FC
74%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
72%

Winning margin

Al Taqdom wins by 2+
11%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Taqdom 1+ goals
65%
Al Taqdom 2+ goals
29%
Al Taqdom 3+ goals
9%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
76%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
42%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Taqdom (draw refunded)
38%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taqdom at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taqdom attack 1.21 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.24 + Al Taqdom defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Taqdom scores more
28%
level
26%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
46%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taqdom 1–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Taqdom 3-1 in Division 1 on January 21, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Najma Club Stadium in Unaizah.