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Al Taqdom vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Taqdom
Al Taqdom
FT
0 – 4
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
9/11/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Al-Najma Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Taqdom34%
×Draw27%
Al Bukayriyah39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taqdom
1.23
Al Bukayriyah
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Taqdom
1.21
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Taqdom
1.63
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Taqdom+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taqdom ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Taqdom or draw
61%
Al Taqdom or Al Bukayriyah
73%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
66%

Winning margin

Al Taqdom wins by 2+
15%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Taqdom 1+ goals
71%
Al Taqdom 2+ goals
35%
Al Taqdom 3+ goals
13%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
74%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
38%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Taqdom (draw refunded)
47%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taqdom at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taqdom attack 1.21 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Taqdom defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Taqdom scores more
34%
level
27%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
39%

Al Bukayriyah at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taqdom 0–4 Al Bukayriyah

Al Bukayriyah beat Al Taqdom 4-0 in Division 1 on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Najma Club Stadium in Unaizah.