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Al Taqdom vs Al-Ansar — Division 1 2018

Al Taqdom
Al Taqdom
FT
3 – 0
Al-Ansar
Al-Ansar
9/4/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 3Al-Najma Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Taqdom44%
×Draw25%
Al-Ansar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taqdom
1.56
Al-Ansar
1.29

Al Taqdom creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al Taqdom
1.21
Al-Ansar
0.95

allows per match

Al Taqdom
1.63
Al-Ansar
1.91

finishing

Al Taqdom+0.00on par
Al-Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taqdom ↓

Al-Ansar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Taqdom or draw
68%
Al Taqdom or Al-Ansar
75%
Draw or Al-Ansar
56%

Winning margin

Al Taqdom wins by 2+
22%
Al-Ansar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Taqdom 1+ goals
79%
Al Taqdom 2+ goals
46%
Al Taqdom 3+ goals
21%
Al-Ansar 1+ goals
72%
Al-Ansar 2+ goals
37%
Al-Ansar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Taqdom (draw refunded)
58%
Al-Ansar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taqdom at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Al-Ansar away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taqdom attack 1.21 + Al-Ansar defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Al-Ansar attack 0.95 + Al Taqdom defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Taqdom scores more
44%
level
25%
Al-Ansar scores more
32%

Al Taqdom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Taqdom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taqdom vs Al-Ansar

Al Taqdom beat Al-Ansar 3-0 in Division 1 on September 4, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Najma Club Stadium in Unaizah.