Al Taqadom 1–0 Kober: Result & Stats

Al Taqadom

FT

1 – 0

Kober

1/19/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Taqadom43%

×Draw31%

Kober26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaqadomExpected goals in this matchKober

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.81

Al Taqadom

1.13

Kober

0.81

Al Taqadom creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 38 away

0.80

creates per match

0.82

0.80

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Al Taqadom

0.80

Kober

0.82

allows per match

Al Taqadom

0.80

Kober

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taqadom+0.00on par

Kober+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taqadom ↓

Kober →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Taqadom or draw

74%

Al Taqadom or Kober

69%

Draw or Kober

57%

Winning margin

Al Taqadom wins by 2+

18%

Kober wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Taqadom 1+ goals

68%

Al Taqadom 2+ goals

31%

Al Taqadom 3+ goals

11%

Kober 1+ goals

56%

Kober 2+ goals

19%

Kober 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Taqadom (draw refunded)

62%

Kober (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taqadom at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Kober away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taqadom attack 0.80 + Kober defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kober attack 0.82 + Al Taqadom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Taqadom scores more

43%

level

31%

Kober scores more

26%

Al Taqadom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Taqadom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff