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Al Taliya vs Efrin — Premier League 2019

Al Taliya
Al Taliya
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Efrin
Efrin
3/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Taliya59%
×Draw23%
Efrin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taliya
1.74
Efrin
0.82

Al Taliya creates 112% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Taliya
0.94
Efrin
0.77

allows per match

Al Taliya
0.88
Efrin
2.54

finishing

Al Taliya+0.00on par
Efrin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taliya ↓

Efrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Taliya or draw
83%
Al Taliya or Efrin
77%
Draw or Efrin
41%

Winning margin

Al Taliya wins by 2+
33%
Efrin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Taliya 1+ goals
82%
Al Taliya 2+ goals
52%
Al Taliya 3+ goals
25%
Efrin 1+ goals
56%
Efrin 2+ goals
20%
Efrin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Taliya (draw refunded)
77%
Efrin (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taliya at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Efrin away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taliya attack 0.94 + Efrin defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.74

Efrin attack 0.77 + Al Taliya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al Taliya scores more
59%
level
23%
Efrin scores more
17%

Al Taliya at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Taliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taliya vs Efrin

Al Taliya beat Efrin 3-0 in Premier League on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Hama.