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Al Taliya vs Al Karama — Premier League 2019

Al Taliya
Al Taliya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Karama
Al Karama
A. Haule 45' (pen)
12/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Al Taliya32%
×Draw32%
Al Karama36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taliya
0.90
Al Karama
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Taliya
0.94
Al Karama
1.05

allows per match

Al Taliya
0.88
Al Karama
0.85

finishing

Al Taliya+0.00on par
Al Karama+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taliya ↓

Al Karama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Taliya or draw
64%
Al Taliya or Al Karama
68%
Draw or Al Karama
68%

Winning margin

Al Taliya wins by 2+
11%
Al Karama wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Taliya 1+ goals
59%
Al Taliya 2+ goals
23%
Al Taliya 3+ goals
6%
Al Karama 1+ goals
62%
Al Karama 2+ goals
25%
Al Karama 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Taliya (draw refunded)
47%
Al Karama (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taliya at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Al Karama away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taliya attack 0.94 + Al Karama defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Al Karama attack 1.05 + Al Taliya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Taliya scores more
32%
level
32%
Al Karama scores more
36%

Al Karama at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. HaulePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taliya vs Al Karama

Al Taliya beat Al Karama 1-0 in Premier League on December 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Haule (45' pen).

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Hama.