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Al Taliya vs Al Jazira — Premier League 2019

Al Taliya
Al Taliya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Jazira
Al Jazira
6/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Taliya58%
×Draw25%
Al Jazira17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taliya
1.59
Al Jazira
0.71

Al Taliya creates 124% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Taliya
0.94
Al Jazira
0.53

allows per match

Al Taliya
0.88
Al Jazira
2.24

finishing

Al Taliya+0.00on par
Al Jazira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taliya ↓

Al Jazira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Taliya or draw
83%
Al Taliya or Al Jazira
75%
Draw or Al Jazira
42%

Winning margin

Al Taliya wins by 2+
32%
Al Jazira wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Taliya 1+ goals
80%
Al Taliya 2+ goals
47%
Al Taliya 3+ goals
21%
Al Jazira 1+ goals
51%
Al Jazira 2+ goals
16%
Al Jazira 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Taliya (draw refunded)
78%
Al Jazira (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taliya at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Al Jazira away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taliya attack 0.94 + Al Jazira defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al Jazira attack 0.53 + Al Taliya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Taliya scores more
58%
level
25%
Al Jazira scores more
17%

Al Taliya at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Taliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Taliya 2 – 1 Al Jazira

Al Taliya beat Al Jazira 2-1 in Premier League on June 28, 2020.