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Al Talaba vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2020

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
11/4/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Al Talaba43%
×Draw28%
Naft Maysan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.28
Naft Maysan
1.00

Al Talaba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.25
Naft Maysan
1.06

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.95
Naft Maysan
1.31

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
71%
Al Talaba or Naft Maysan
72%
Draw or Naft Maysan
57%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
19%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
72%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
37%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
14%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
63%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
26%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
60%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 112 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.25 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Al Talaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Talaba scores more
43%
level
28%
Naft Maysan scores more
29%

Al Talaba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Talaba 0–4 Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Al Talaba 4-0 in Iraqi League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.