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Al Talaba vs Naft Al-Janoob — Iraqi League 2020

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
11/25/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Talaba44%
×Draw29%
Naft Al-Janoob27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.25
Naft Al-Janoob
0.92

Al Talaba creates 36% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.25
Naft Al-Janoob
0.88

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.95
Naft Al-Janoob
1.24

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
73%
Al Talaba or Naft Al-Janoob
71%
Draw or Naft Al-Janoob
56%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
20%
Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
71%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
36%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
13%
Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
60%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
23%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
62%
Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 112 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.25 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Al Talaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Talaba scores more
44%
level
29%
Naft Al-Janoob scores more
27%

Al Talaba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Talaba 0–1 Naft Al-Janoob

Naft Al-Janoob beat Al Talaba 1-0 in Iraqi League on November 25, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.