Al Talaba 2–3 Erbil: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Al Talaba

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Erbil

S. Msuva 80'

A. Abdulzahra 68'

S. Temirov 78'

C. Barco 63'

M. Cabrera 41'

4/27/2026

Iraqi League · Round 31Al Talaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Talaba29%

×Draw29%

Erbil42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TalabaExpected goals in this matchErbil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.20

Al Talaba

0.94

Erbil

1.20

Erbil creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

1.56

0.84

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Al Talaba

1.00

Erbil

1.56

allows per match

Al Talaba

0.84

Erbil

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par

Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Erbil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw

58%

Al Talaba or Erbil

71%

Draw or Erbil

71%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+

10%

Erbil wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals

61%

Al Talaba 2+ goals

24%

Al Talaba 3+ goals

7%

Erbil 1+ goals

70%

Erbil 2+ goals

34%

Erbil 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)

41%

Erbil (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.00 + Erbil defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Erbil attack 1.56 + Al Talaba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Talaba scores more

29%

level

29%

Erbil scores more

42%

Erbil at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

63'

68'

78'

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff