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Al Talaba vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2025

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
M. Soueid 29'
Aymen Hussein 83', 45' (pen)
4/5/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 21Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Talaba37%
×Draw30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.07
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.12
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.12

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.88
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.02

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
67%
Al Talaba or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
70%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
63%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
15%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
66%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
29%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
9%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
63%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
26%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
53%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 41 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.12 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.12 + Al Talaba defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Talaba scores more
37%
level
30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
33%

Al Talaba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Soueid
45'
Aymen HusseinPenalty
83'
Aymen Hussein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Talaba 1–2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Al Talaba 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 5, 2024.

Goals: M. Soueid (29'), Aymen Hussein (45' pen, 83').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.