Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Talaba vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
Sajed Hashem 45'
12/9/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Talaba46%
×Draw28%
Al Minaa Basra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.32
Al Minaa Basra
0.91

Al Talaba creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.25
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.95
Al Minaa Basra
1.40

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
74%
Al Talaba or Al Minaa Basra
72%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
54%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
21%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
73%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
38%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
15%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
60%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
23%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
64%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 112 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.25 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Talaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Talaba scores more
46%
level
28%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
26%

Al Talaba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
H. Al-Hraishawi
45'
Sajed Hashem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Talaba vs Al Minaa Basra

Al Minaa Basra beat Al Talaba 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 9, 2023.

Goals: Sajed Hashem (45').

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.