Al Minaa Basra 2–3 Al Talaba: Result & Stats

Al Minaa Basra

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Al Talaba

M. Abdulrahim 78'

T. Kisinda 10'

H. Oueslati 50'

L. Al Ani 40', 19' (pen)

6/21/2025

Iraqi League · Round 36Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Minaa Basra33%

×Draw29%

Al Talaba38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Minaa BasraExpected goals in this matchAl Talaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.15

Al Minaa Basra

1.04

Al Talaba

1.15

Al Talaba creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 39 away

1.11

creates per match

1.26

1.03

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.11

Al Talaba

1.26

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.03

Al Talaba

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Al Talaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw

62%

Al Minaa Basra or Al Talaba

71%

Draw or Al Talaba

67%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

13%

Al Talaba wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

65%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

28%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

9%

Al Talaba 1+ goals

68%

Al Talaba 2+ goals

32%

Al Talaba 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

46%

Al Talaba (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.11 + Al Talaba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Talaba attack 1.26 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more

33%

level

29%

Al Talaba scores more

38%

Al Talaba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

T. Kisinda

19'

L. Al AniPenalty

40'

50'

52'

52'

78'

M. Abdulrahim

90+7'

S. Heder

90+7'

S. Heder

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff