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Al Talaba vs Al-Karma — Iraqi League 2025

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Karma
Al-Karma
I. Saadeh 34' (OG)
A. Maknzi 54'
5/19/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 36Al Talaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Talaba37%
×Draw30%
Al-Karma33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.08
Al-Karma
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.13
Al-Karma
1.12

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.90
Al-Karma
1.04

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Al-Karma+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Al-Karma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
67%
Al Talaba or Al-Karma
70%
Draw or Al-Karma
63%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
15%
Al-Karma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
66%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
29%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
10%
Al-Karma 1+ goals
64%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
27%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
53%
Al-Karma (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

Al-Karma away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.13 + Al-Karma defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al-Karma attack 1.12 + Al Talaba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Talaba scores more
37%
level
30%
Al-Karma scores more
33%

Al Talaba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
I. SaadehOwn goal
54'
A. Maknzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Talaba vs Al-Karma

Al Talaba and Al-Karma drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on May 19, 2026.

Goals: I. Saadeh (34' o.g.), A. Maknzi (54').

The match was played at Al Talaba Stadium in Baghdad.