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Al Taee vs Najran — Division 1 2018

Al Taee
Al Taee
FT
0 – 2
Najran
Najran
10/22/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 10Al Tai Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Al Taee41%
×Draw27%
Najran31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taee
1.32
Najran
1.11

Al Taee creates 19% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Taee
1.41
Najran
1.10

allows per match

Al Taee
1.12
Najran
1.23

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par
Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Najran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw
69%
Al Taee or Najran
73%
Draw or Najran
59%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+
19%
Najran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals
73%
Al Taee 2+ goals
38%
Al Taee 3+ goals
15%
Najran 1+ goals
67%
Najran 2+ goals
30%
Najran 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)
57%
Najran (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 74 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.41 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Najran attack 1.10 + Al Taee defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Taee scores more
41%
level
27%
Najran scores more
31%

Al Taee at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taee vs Najran

Najran beat Al Taee 2-0 in Division 1 on October 22, 2019.

The match was played at Al Tai Club Stadium in Hail.