Al Taee 1–2 Al Wehda Club: Result & Stats

Al Taee

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Al Wehda Club

11/7/2025

Division 1 · Round 8Prince Abdul Aziz bin Masaad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Taee39%

×Draw27%

Al Wehda Club33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaeeExpected goals in this matchAl Wehda Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.16

Al Taee

1.29

Al Wehda Club

1.16

Al Taee creates 11% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 35 away

1.41

creates per match

1.20

1.12

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Al Taee

1.41

Al Wehda Club

1.20

allows per match

Al Taee

1.12

Al Wehda Club

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par

Al Wehda Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al Wehda Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw

67%

Al Taee or Al Wehda Club

73%

Draw or Al Wehda Club

61%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+

18%

Al Wehda Club wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals

72%

Al Taee 2+ goals

37%

Al Taee 3+ goals

14%

Al Wehda Club 1+ goals

69%

Al Wehda Club 2+ goals

32%

Al Wehda Club 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)

54%

Al Wehda Club (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 74 matches

Al Wehda Club away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.41 + Al Wehda Club defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Wehda Club attack 1.20 + Al Taee defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Taee scores more

39%

level

27%

Al Wehda Club scores more

33%

Al Taee at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff