Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Taee vs Al Sahel — Division 1 2018

Al Taee
Al Taee
FT
2 – 0
Al Sahel
Al Sahel
E. N. da Silva 90'
I. Imran 74'
12/9/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 9Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Taee43%
×Draw27%
Al Sahel30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taee
1.38
Al Sahel
1.10

Al Taee creates 25% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 55 away

creates per match

Al Taee
1.41
Al Sahel
1.07

allows per match

Al Taee
1.12
Al Sahel
1.35

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par
Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw
70%
Al Taee or Al Sahel
73%
Draw or Al Sahel
57%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+
20%
Al Sahel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals
75%
Al Taee 2+ goals
40%
Al Taee 3+ goals
16%
Al Sahel 1+ goals
67%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
30%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)
59%
Al Sahel (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 74 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.41 + Al Sahel defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Sahel attack 1.07 + Al Taee defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Taee scores more
43%
level
27%
Al Sahel scores more
30%

Al Taee at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
I. Imran
90'
E. N. da Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taee vs Al Sahel

Al Taee beat Al Sahel 2-0 in Division 1 on December 9, 2020.

Goals: I. Imran (74'), E. N. da Silva (90').

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.