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Al Taee vs Al-Fateh — Pro League 2018

Al Taee
Al Taee
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
9/14/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 4Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al Taee41%
×Draw24%
Al-Fateh34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taee
1.57
Al-Fateh
1.41

Al Taee creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al Taee
1.47
Al-Fateh
1.33

allows per match

Al Taee
1.49
Al-Fateh
1.68

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par
Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al-Fateh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw
66%
Al Taee or Al-Fateh
76%
Draw or Al-Fateh
59%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+
21%
Al-Fateh wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals
79%
Al Taee 2+ goals
46%
Al Taee 3+ goals
21%
Al-Fateh 1+ goals
76%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
41%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)
55%
Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Al-Fateh away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.47 + Al-Fateh defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Al-Fateh attack 1.33 + Al Taee defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Taee scores more
41%
level
24%
Al-Fateh scores more
34%

Al Taee at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taee vs Al-Fateh

Al Taee beat Al-Fateh 1-0 in Pro League on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.