Al Taee 3–1 Al Baten: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Taee

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Baten

C. Malele 90+3'

T. Figueroa 72'

Jamal Bajandouh 55'

Maurício Antônio 69'

2/12/2022

Pro League · Round 20Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al Taee49%

×Draw24%

Al Baten27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaeeExpected goals in this matchAl Baten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.22

Al Taee

1.73

Al Baten

1.22

Al Taee creates 42% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 59 away

1.47

creates per match

0.95

1.49

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al Taee

1.47

Al Baten

0.95

allows per match

Al Taee

1.49

Al Baten

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par

Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al Baten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw

73%

Al Taee or Al Baten

76%

Draw or Al Baten

51%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+

27%

Al Baten wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals

82%

Al Taee 2+ goals

52%

Al Taee 3+ goals

25%

Al Baten 1+ goals

70%

Al Baten 2+ goals

34%

Al Baten 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)

65%

Al Baten (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Al Baten away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.47 + Al Baten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Al Baten attack 0.95 + Al Taee defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Taee scores more

49%

level

24%

Al Baten scores more

27%

Al Taee at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Musona

Al Taee · F

8.3

Match Events

42'

Hassan Al-Jubairi

46'

C. Fai← Abdullah Tarmin

48'

Rakan Shamlan

55'

Jamal Bajandouh

68'

Yousef Al-Shammari← Rakan Shamlan

69'

Maurício Antônio↳ Y. El Jebli

72'

T. Figueroa↳ K. Musona

77'

Hussain Al Eisa← Abdulaziz Al-Alawi

89'

Mohammed Maran← A. Sayoud

89'

C. Malele← T. Figueroa

90+5'

Maurício Antônio

90+2'

Mohamed Rayhi

90+4'

Abdulkarim Sultan← Mukhtar Ali

90'

Abdulaziz Al-Aryani← Mohammed Al Qarni

90+3'

C. Malele↳ K. Musona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

61%Possession39%

7Total Shots15

2Corners5

25Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots15

4On Target5

2Off Target5

1Blocked5

6Inside Box10

1Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

462Total Passes291

407Accurate Passes226

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

25Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0