Al Baten 4–3 Al Taee: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Baten

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Al Taee

R. López 90+11' (pen), 45+3'

A. Roa 87'

Yousef Al Shammari 52'

K. Musona 28' (pen)

G. Mbenza 18'

A. Sayoud 14'

5/10/2023

Pro League · Round 26Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al Baten45%

×Draw25%

Al Taee30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl Taee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.21

Al Baten

1.55

Al Taee

1.21

Al Baten creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 47 away

1.23

creates per match

0.83

1.58

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al Taee

0.83

allows per match

Al Baten

1.58

Al Taee

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al Taee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al Taee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

70%

Al Baten or Al Taee

75%

Draw or Al Taee

55%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

23%

Al Taee wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

79%

Al Baten 2+ goals

46%

Al Baten 3+ goals

20%

Al Taee 1+ goals

70%

Al Taee 2+ goals

34%

Al Taee 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

60%

Al Taee (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

Al Taee away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al Taee defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.55

Al Taee attack 0.83 + Al Baten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Baten scores more

45%

level

25%

Al Taee scores more

30%

Al Baten at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

R. López

Al Baten · F

8.9

Match Events

10'

Nawaf Al Qamiri← Abdulkarim Sultan

14'

A. Sayoud↳ C. Fai

18'

G. Mbenza

26'

André Bukia

26'

Amir SaâyoudPenalty confirmed

28'

K. MusonaPenalty

30'

Mohammed Bassam Alhurayji

45+3'

R. López↳ A. Roa

52'

Yousef Al Shammari↳ J. Pedroza

57'

Abdullah Al Joui← Mohammed Harzan

65'

Hussain Qasim

72'

M. Salifu← Rakan Shamlan

72'

Abdulaziz Majrashi← C. Fai

73'

Abdullah Al-Jawaey

78'

Renzo López

78'

Dener

80'

Yousef Fawaz← Mohammed Naji

86'

Yousef Fawaz

87'

A. Roa↳ J. Pedroza

88'

Yahya Al Qarani← Nawaf Al Sehimai

90+8'

Andrés RoaPenalty confirmed

90+9'

Amir SaâyoudGoal cancelled

90+11'

R. LópezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

46%Possession54%

20Total Shots14

10Corners2

8Fouls25

Shots

20Total Shots14

10On Target4

6Off Target6

4Blocked4

12Inside Box9

8Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

349Total Passes454

280Accurate Passes381

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls25

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1