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Al Taawon vs Sharjah FC — AFC Cup 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawonadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
4/8/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Semi-finalsAl Taawoun Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Taawon39%
×Draw28%
Sharjah FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.25
Sharjah FC
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.50
Sharjah FC
1.29

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.00
Sharjah FC
1.00

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
66%
Al Taawon or Sharjah FC
72%
Draw or Sharjah FC
61%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
17%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
71%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
36%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
13%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
68%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
32%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
53%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.50 + Sharjah FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sharjah FC attack 1.29 + Al Taawon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Taawon scores more
39%
level
28%
Sharjah FC scores more
34%

Al Taawon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taawon vs Sharjah FC

Al Taawon beat Sharjah FC 1-0 in AFC Cup on April 8, 2025.

The match was played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium in Buraidah.