Al Taawon 0–1 Gulf United: Result & Stats

Al Taawon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gulf United

12/10/2023

Division 1 · Round 11Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Taawon44%

×Draw25%

Gulf United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaawonExpected goals in this matchGulf United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.28

Al Taawon

1.57

Gulf United

1.28

Al Taawon creates 23% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 43 away

1.27

creates per match

0.93

1.62

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Al Taawon

1.27

Gulf United

0.93

allows per match

Al Taawon

1.62

Gulf United

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Gulf United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Gulf United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw

69%

Al Taawon or Gulf United

75%

Draw or Gulf United

56%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+

22%

Gulf United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals

79%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

46%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

21%

Gulf United 1+ goals

72%

Gulf United 2+ goals

37%

Gulf United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

59%

Gulf United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

Gulf United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.27 + Gulf United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gulf United attack 0.93 + Al Taawon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Taawon scores more

44%

level

25%

Gulf United scores more

31%

Al Taawon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff