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Al Taawon vs Dibba Al Hisn — Division 1 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
12/17/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 13Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Taawon27%
×Draw24%
Dibba Al Hisn50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.20
Dibba Al Hisn
1.73

Dibba Al Hisn creates 44% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.27
Dibba Al Hisn
1.83

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.62
Dibba Al Hisn
1.12

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
50%
Al Taawon or Dibba Al Hisn
76%
Draw or Dibba Al Hisn
73%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
11%
Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
70%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
34%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
12%
Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
82%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
52%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
35%
Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.27 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Al Taawon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Taawon scores more
27%
level
24%
Dibba Al Hisn scores more
50%

Dibba Al Hisn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taawon 1–3 Dibba Al Hisn

Dibba Al Hisn beat Al Taawon 3-1 in Division 1 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium in Ash Sha'm.