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Al Taawon vs Damac — Pro League 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Damac
Damac
11/5/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 12Al Taawon Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al Taawon50%
×Draw24%
Damac26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.71
Damac
1.15

Al Taawon creates 49% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.63
Damac
1.06

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.24
Damac
1.80

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Damac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Damac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
74%
Al Taawon or Damac
76%
Draw or Damac
50%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
27%
Damac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
82%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
51%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
24%
Damac 1+ goals
68%
Damac 2+ goals
32%
Damac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
66%
Damac (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 126 matches

Damac away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.63 + Damac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Damac attack 1.06 + Al Taawon defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Taawon scores more
50%
level
24%
Damac scores more
26%

Al Taawon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taawon vs Damac

Al Taawon and Damac drew 0-0 in Pro League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Buraidah.